Carbon Monoxide in type II supernovae

Infrared spectra of two type II supernovae 6 months after explosion are presented. The spectra exhibit a strong similarity to the observations of SN 1987A and other type II SNe at comparable epochs. The continuum can be fitted with a cool black body and the hydrogen lines have emissivities that are approximately those of a Case B recombination spectrum. The data extend far enough into the thermal region to detect emission by the first overtone of carbon monoxide. The molecular emission is modeled and compared with that in the spectra of SN 1987A. It is found that the flux in the CO first overtone is comparable to that found in SN 1987A. We argue that Carbon Monoxide forms in the ejecta of all type II SNe during the first year after explosion.Comment: 6 pages, 6 figures, accepted for publications in A&

Machine Learning Models that Remember Too Much

Machine learning (ML) is becoming a commodity. Numerous ML frameworks and services are available to data holders who are not ML experts but want to train predictive models on their data. It is important that ML models trained on sensitive inputs (e.g., personal images or documents) not leak too much information about the training data. We consider a malicious ML provider who supplies model-training code to the data holder, does not observe the training, but then obtains white- or black-box access to the resulting model. In this setting, we design and implement practical algorithms, some of them very similar to standard ML techniques such as regularization and data augmentation, that "memorize" information about the training dataset in the model yet the model is as accurate and predictive as a conventionally trained model. We then explain how the adversary can extract memorized information from the model. We evaluate our techniques on standard ML tasks for image classification (CIFAR10), face recognition (LFW and FaceScrub), and text analysis (20 Newsgroups and IMDB). In all cases, we show how our algorithms create models that have high predictive power yet allow accurate extraction of subsets of their training data

Diversity of symptom phenotypes in SARS-CoV-2 community infections observed in multiple large datasets

Variability in case severity and in the range of symptoms experienced has been apparent from the earliest months of the COVID-19 pandemic. From a clinical perspective, symptom variability might indicate various routes/mechanisms by which infection leads to disease, with different routes requiring potentially different treatment approaches. For public health and control of transmission, symptoms in community cases were the prompt on which action such as PCR testing and isolation was taken. However, interpreting symptoms presents challenges, for instance in balancing sensitivity and specificity of individual symptoms with the need to maximise case finding, whilst managing demand for limited resources such as testing. For both clinical and transmission control reasons, we require an approach that allows for the possibility of distinct symptom phenotypes, rather than assuming variability along a single dimension. Here we address this problem by bringing together four large and diverse datasets deriving from routine testing, a population-representative household survey and participatory smartphone surveillance in the United Kingdom. Through use of cutting-edge unsupervised classification techniques from statistics and machine learning, we characterise symptom phenotypes among symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 PCR-positive community cases, making comparisons across datasets and by age bands. While we observe separation due to the total number of symptoms experienced by cases, we also see a separation of symptoms into gastrointestinal, respiratory and other types, and different symptom co-occurrence patterns at the extremes of age. In this way, we are able to demonstrate the deep structure of symptoms of COVID-19 without usual biases due to study design.Comment: 52 pages; 25 figure

A search for photometric variability towards M71 with the Near-Infrared Transiting ExoplanetS Telescope

We present the results of a high-cadence photometric survey of an 11 arcmin × 11 arcmin field centred on the globular cluster M71, with the Near-Infrared Transiting ExoplanetS Telescope. The aim of our survey is to search for stellar variability and giant transiting exoplanets. This survey differs from previous photometric surveys of M71 in that it is more sensitive to lower amplitude (ΔM ≤ 0.02 mag) and longer period (P > 2 d) variability than previous work on this cluster. We have discovered 17 new variable stars towards M71 and confirm the nature of 13 previously known objects, for which the orbital periods of 7 are refined or newly determined. Given the photometric precision of our high-cadence survey on the horizontal branch of M71, we confirm that the cluster is devoid of RR Lyrae variable stars within the area surveyed. We present new B- and V-band photometry of the stars in our sample from which we estimate spectral types of the variable objects. We also search our survey data for transiting hot Jupiters and present simulations of the expected number of detections. Approximately 1000 stars were observed on the main sequence of M71 with sufficient photometric accuracy to detect a transiting hot Jupiter; however, none were found

The burden of cancer attributable to modifiable risk factors: The Australian cancer-PAF cohort consortium

Purpose To estimate the Australian cancer burden attributable to lifestyle-related risk factors and their combinations using a novel population attributable fraction (PAF) method that accounts for competing risk of death, risk factor interdependence and statistical uncertainty. Participants 365 173 adults from seven Australian cohort studies. We linked pooled harmonised individual participant cohort data with population-based cancer and death registries to estimate exposure-cancer and exposure-death associations. Current Australian exposure prevalence was estimated from representative external sources. To illustrate the utility of the new PAF method, we calculated fractions of cancers causally related to body fatness or both tobacco and alcohol consumption avoidable in the next 10 years by risk factor modifications, comparing them with fractions produced by traditional PAF methods. Findings to date Over 10 years of follow-up, we observed 27 483 incident cancers and 22 078 deaths. Of cancers related to body fatness (n=9258), 13% (95% CI 11% to 16%) could be avoided if those currently overweight or obese had body mass index of 18.5–24.9 kg/m2. Of cancers causally related to both tobacco and alcohol (n=4283), current or former smoking explains 13% (11% to 16%) and consuming more than two alcoholic drinks per day explains 6% (5% to 8%). The two factors combined explain 16% (13% to 19%): 26% (21% to 30%) in men and 8% (4% to 11%) in women. Corresponding estimates using the traditional PAF method were 20%, 31% and 10%. Our PAF estimates translate to 74 000 avoidable body fatness-related cancers and 40 000 avoidable tobacco- and alcohol-related cancers in Australia over the next 10 years (2017–2026). Traditional PAF methods not accounting for competing risk of death and interdependence of risk factors may overestimate PAFs and avoidable cancers. Future plans We will rank the most important causal factors and their combinations for a spectrum of cancers and inform cancer control activities.This study was funded by the National Health and Medical Research Council (ID1060991; ID1053642 to MAL; ID1082989 to KC; ID1042717 to EB) and a Cancer Institute New South Wales Fellowship (ID13/ECF/1-07 to MAL). Maria Arriaga was supported by Australian Postgraduate Award and a Translational Cancer Research Network (TCRN) PhD Scholarship Top-up Award

Scientific Objectives of Einstein Telescope

The advanced interferometer network will herald a new era in observational astronomy. There is a very strong science case to go beyond the advanced detector network and build detectors that operate in a frequency range from 1 Hz-10 kHz, with sensitivity a factor ten better in amplitude. Such detectors will be able to probe a range of topics in nuclear physics, astronomy, cosmology and fundamental physics, providing insights into many unsolved problems in these areas.Comment: 18 pages, 4 figures, Plenary talk given at Amaldi Meeting, July 201

Modelling human visual navigation using multi-view scene reconstruction

It is often assumed that humans generate a 3D reconstruction of the environment, either in egocentric or world-based coordinates, but the steps involved are unknown. Here, we propose two reconstruction-based models, evaluated using data from two tasks in immersive virtual reality. We model the observer’s prediction of landmark location based on standard photogrammetric methods and then combine location predictions to compute likelihood maps of navigation behaviour. In one model, each scene point is treated independently in the reconstruction; in the other, the pertinent variable is the spatial relationship between pairs of points. Participants viewed a simple environment from one location, were transported (virtually) to another part of the scene and were asked to navigate back. Error distributions varied substantially with changes in scene layout; we compared these directly with the likelihood maps to quantify the success of the models. We also measured error distributions when participants manipulated the location of a landmark to match the preceding interval, providing a direct test of the landmark-location stage of the navigation models. Models such as this, which start with scenes and end with a probabilistic prediction of behaviour, are likely to be increasingly useful for understanding 3D vision

A Large Linked Study to Evaluate the Future Burden of Cancer in Australia Attributable to Current Modifiable Behaviours

Introduction The cancer burden preventable through modifications to risk factors can be quantified by calculating their population attributable fractions (PAFs). PAF estimates require large, prospective data to inform risk estimates and contemporary population-based prevalence data to inform the current exposure distributions, including among population subgroups. Objectives and Approach We provide estimates of the preventable future cancer burden in Australia using large linked datasets. We pooled data from seven Australian cohort studies (N=367,058) and linked them to national registries to identify cancers and deaths. We estimated the strength of the associations between behaviours and cancer risk using a proportional hazards model, adjusting for age, sex, study and other behaviours. Exposure prevalence was estimated from contemporary National Health Surveys. We harmonised risk factor data across the data sources, and calculated PAFs and their 95% confidence intervals using a novel method accounting for competing risk of death and risk factor interdependence. Results During the first 10-years follow-up, there were 3,471 incident colorectal cancers, 640 premenopausal and 2,632 postmenopausal breast cancers, 2,025 lung cancers and 22,078 deaths. The leading preventable causes were current smoking (53.7% of lung cancers), body fatness or BMI ≥ 25kg/m2 (11.1% of colorectal cancers, 10.9% of postmenopausal breast cancers), and regular alcohol consumption (12.2% of premenopausal breast cancers). Three in five lung cancers, but only one in four colorectal cancers and one in five breast cancers, were attributable to modifiable factors, when we also considered physical inactivity, dietary and hormonal factors. The burden attributable to modifiable factors was markedly higher in certain population subgroups, including men (colorectal, lung), people with risk factor clustering (colorectal, breast, lung), and individuals with low educational attainment (breast, lung). Conclusion/Implications Estimating PAFs for modifiable risk factors across cancers using contemporary exposure prevalence data can inform timely public health action to improve health and health equity. Testing PAF effect modification may identify population subgroups with the most to gain from programs that support behaviour change and early detection

Global warming and recurrent mass bleaching of corals

During 2015–2016, record temperatures triggered a pan-tropical episode of coral bleaching, the third global-scale event since mass bleaching was first documented in the 1980s. Here we examine how and why the severity of recurrent major bleaching events has varied at multiple scales, using aerial and underwater surveys of Australian reefs combined with satellite-derived sea surface temperatures. The distinctive geographic footprints of recurrent bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef in 1998, 2002 and 2016 were determined by the spatial pattern of sea temperatures in each year. Water quality and fishing pressure had minimal effect on the unprecedented bleaching in 2016, suggesting that local protection of reefs affords little or no resistance to extreme heat. Similarly, past exposure to bleaching in 1998 and 2002 did not lessen the severity of bleaching in 2016. Consequently, immediate global action to curb future warming is essential to secure a future for coral reefs

Venture capital-backed firms, unavoidable value-destroying trade sales, and fair value protections

This paper investigates the implications of the fair value protections contemplated by the standard corporate contract (i.e., the standard contract form for which corporate law provides) for the entrepreneur–venture capitalist relationship, focusing, in particular, on unavoidable value-destroying trade sales. First, it demonstrates that the typical entrepreneur–venture capitalist contract does institutionalize the venture capitalist’s liquidity needs, allowing, under some circumstances, for counterintuitive instances of contractually-compliant value destruction. Unavoidable value-destroying trade sales are the most tangible example. Next, it argues that fair value protections can prevent the entrepreneur and venture capitalist from allocating the value that these transactions generate as they would want. Then, it shows that the reality of venture capital-backed firms calls for a process of adaptation of the standard corporate contract that has one major step in the deactivation or re-shaping of fair value protections. Finally, it argues that a standard corporate contract aiming to promote social welfare through venture capital should feature flexible fair value protections.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio